The Stockdale Paradox Explained

The Stockdale Paradox has been a frequent topic of discussion of late due to the COVID-19 crisis and has never been more relevant to the masses.  Admiral James Stockdale served in the Navy during the Vietnam War and was held as a prisoner of war from 1965 to 1973.  He was tortured repeatedly during that timeframe, had no release date, and no idea of whether or not he would make it out alive.

Years after his release during interviews with author Jim Collins, Stockdale stated: “you must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”  The duality of these concepts; the confrontation of the brutal facts, and maintaining the faith, was coined by Collins as the Stockdale Paradox.

Collins recently released this video, which explains his discussions with Stockdale, and the paradox in detail.

As I read more about Stockdale, his statements, and the Stockdale Paradox itself, I became confused with what seemed to be hypocritical statements.  On the one hand, Stockdale claims that optimism is responsible for his survival, but when asked who struggled the most with imprisonment, he replied, “I can tell you who didn’t make it out.  It was the optimists.” 

I believe this is an essential point of distinction.  The Stockdale Paradox refers to an unwavering faith that, despite the acceptance of the current reality, we will prevail.  That contrasts with the optimist that he referred to, who relied on blind faith.

Simon Sinek released this short video, which helps with this distinction.

Not unlike Admiral Stockdale, we don’t know our release date from the COVID-19 crisis.  Applying these principles will help get through it.

Keep your eyes wide open to the reality and retain the faith!